Thursday, August 10, 2006

Does luck keep tabs?

Whats the probability of getting a heads or a tails on a coin flip? 50% right??

Well, try flipping a coin...say you got heads the first time around. Flip it again. Now we should be twice as likely to get a tails this time around. Sadly, we still stand at a 50% chance again...so each toss is random, though somehow the probability of getting a heads is 0.5...basically, good and bad luck might be the two sides to a coin, but the coin has a mind of its own ...and it's out there to roger us...

Life's pulled the mickey on us...it really has! Test this for starters-If the professor pulls up one guy in class to answer a question, and if i don't have the faintest clue 'bout the answer...9 times out of 10, it's gotta be me. 5 days a week , i carry an umbrella, and the sixth day, it rains. Feeling a sneeze well up is almost a definite sign that i am not carrying a handkerchief.

And yeah, if you haven't figured out the loop hole yet...here goes. Like coin flips, in over a million encounters with lady luck, everything will even out quite well. Too bad, if your life could fit in just a few thousand such encounters, most of which were needless to say, unfortunately unlucky...fair probability calls for large sample sets...so if in the bleak possibility of you turning 90, you have managed to abate incontinence...there you have it...good luck's come your way!!

Then there are the slightly twisted cases of conditional and dependant probability. For eg: Statistically, women over thirty have a lesser chance of getting married than being killed in a terrorist attack. I'm not being mean here...come to think of it, im reasonably sensitive. But people in Taliban have even more sensitive ears, and the biological clocks of these women are deafening them!! So these might just happen to be mutually dependent events...surely seems the best reason of the current lot to drive terrorist agendas:)

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